By Renee Davidson and Dale Tarr, NERC Reliability Specialists
With most of the country having already experienced bouts of severe weather, there are several valuable take-aways from the recently published NERC 2022-2023 Winter Reliability Assessment. The assessment is a multi-regional overview of transmission adequacy, generation resources and operational reserves.
NERC warns of potential power Generation and Transmission capacity shortages for 2022-2023 winter period in the North American Bulk Power System (BPS). Despite improvements following the 2021 Winter Storm Uri, energy emergencies have not been eliminated.
2022-2023 NERC Winter Assessment (nerc.com)
MISO, NPCC – New England, SERC-East, and Texas RE are listed to be the most vulnerable as indicated in the NERC assessment.
- MISO has reported declining reserves that are a result of slim resource additions. Load shedding may be implemented during cold weather events.
- NPCC – New England expects resources to meet normal peak demand scenarios, but above-normal winter peak load could result in operating mitigations or load shedding in wide-area cold weather events.
- SERC- East is experiencing fuel supply issues and transportation with a continuation of post pandemic personnel shortages. Load shedding risk is low but above normal winter peak load could result in non-firm transfers.
- Texas RE expects resources to meet normal peak demand scenarios but above-normal winter peak load could result in operating mitigations or load shedding under extreme peak demand and outage scenarios studied.
NERC encourages Generators to implement cold weather preparations/preparedness that consider the NERC Cold Weather Preparations for Extreme Weather Events – II Alert that was issued September 12, 2022. NERC also advises Generators to act as early as possible to ensure fuel availability and request environmental waivers if needed. “Careful attention should be paid to periodic fuel surveys that provide early indication of fuel supply risks” the assessment states – NERC WRA
2022-2023 NERC Winter Assessment (nerc.com).
Generator Owners & Generator Operators should review and implement all applicable mitigation efforts identified in the NERC Alert: Cold Weather Preparations for Extreme Weather Events – II prior to winter seasons. In doing so the severity of risk to the North American BPS will be lessened.
NERC Alert R-2022-09-12-01 Cold Weather Events II