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ERCOT’s 2026 Winter Outlook for Texas

ERCOT’s 2026 Winter Outlook for Texas power grid

By Mike Moyer, Power Market Compliance Services Specialist

ERCOT stated that the Texas power grid is better equipped than in past years to deal with an extreme weather event.

Changes have been made to the Texas power grid with legislation that was passed in 2021-2022, which now requires these plants to provide additional weatherization.  The new rules enforced by the Public Utility Commission of Texas compel Generator and Utility compliance with weather readiness requirements.  Since that past winter weather event, nearly 2,500 plants have undergone weatherization inspections by ERCOT.

The forecast for winter weather in Texas suggests a mostly mild and dry winter, with above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.

ERCOT officials are expecting an overall warm winter in 2026, but a colder winter for the western half of the U.S. due to a potential polar vortex.  According to ERCOT, the biggest concern is the increased load on the system over the last few years.  With all the changes that have been made, ERCOT stated that outages are still a possibility if Texas were to get a strong dip in temperatures.